Wiston Papers

Next Week's Town Hall Debate: My Prediction

The news media, spin doctors and political pundits will comment extensively on Thursday's vice presidential debate between the incumbent Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Challenger Paul Ryan.

Because the consensus is that Governor Mitt Romney won the first presidential debate with President Barack Obama, I suspect that the so-called experts will argue that Mr. Biden was the victor between the two vice presidential aspirants.  If for no other  reason than to add some anticipation and drama to the last two presidential debates.  I want to turn to next week instead.

Next Tuesday’s 90-minute Presidential debate at Hofstra University will be a Town Hall format--one that favors President Obama.  According to 2012 Election Central, the two candidates will answer questions from citizens selected from a group of what the Gallup Organization describes as undecided voters.

President Obama has the decided advantage in the scheduled Town Hall setting.  The format allows the candidates to respond directly to the concerns of American citizens instead of the all too predictable questions posed by the media, which often are more reflective of the narrative established by news organizations than the issues that actually impassion average voters.

Mr. Obama is a gifted orator and he interacts well with citizens.  His life story personifies the American dream--the man or woman who can rise from relatively humble beginnings to become President  or achieve any other dream in the United States.  Barack Obama, in essence, understands the average American.

Governor Romney will have his usual strong command of the issues and articulate his positions well.  But he is the extremely rich son of a prominent and wealthy political family.  He is perceived as the product of an American lifestyle most of us cannot relate to.  No matter how close he may physically come to the audience next week, he still is considered unapproachable by many.

Barack Obama now has a four-year record to defend.  In this format, he will be successful.  Despite America’s weak economic recovery, he will be able to persuade his audience that he understands their pain, he continues to fight for them, but the challenges he encountered when he entered office were more daunting than he suspected.  It is a case that he can and will make effectively.

Mitt Romney will argue that his experience as an executive in both the private and public sector is a powerful tool for correcting America’s ills.  However, his challenge is to persuade those present next Tuesday that he truly understands the depth of suffering among many fellow Americans.  Dogging Mr. Romney is the constant suspicion that he cannot relate to the man and woman on the street.  He will have an uphill battle next week to connect personally with those who will pose questions.

Bill Clinton successfully got up close and personal with Americans in his Town Hall debate with President George H.  W. Bush and Ross Perot in 1992.  He was the outsider; the underdog David battling two politically and economically strong Goliaths.  Clinton won that debate because he interacted individually with his questioners.  He was not distant.  

Barack Obama will enjoy that same advantage.  He shares the same gifts of lofty oratory as Mr. Clinton as well as his sincere one-on-one exchanges.  

Mitt Romney is a far better communicator than either President Bush or Ross Perot and will do better next week than either did ten years ago.  

However, Town Hall meeting is a natural environment for President Obama.  And after his lackluster performance in their initial debate, Mr. Obama will bring his A-game next week.

Round Two: Advantage Obama.

Steve Coon

October 11, 2012