Wiston Papers

Courting Latino Voters: The Myth of Hispanic Power

Father’s Day and our son and I were discussing politics.  It’s enjoyable and easy since he’s very knowledgeable and we usually agree.

The topic was President Obama’s declaration that his administration would stop deporting young people who came to the United States illegally with their parents but have been good residents here.

Our son suggested that perhaps this action would further tighten the Democrat Party’s already strong hold on the Latino community and--as a result--there would be less pressure by Governor Romney’s camp to name Republican Florida Senator Marco Rubio as the GOP Vice Presidential nominee.

An interesting scenario I agree and certainly a plausible scenario.  That opened a wider discussion of about the Latino voting bloc.  Much of it is a myth.

The numerical strength of Hispanics in America is unquestioned.  Latinos are the largest minority in the United States.  However, their political power is far less than the sheer numbers would suggest.  Their 50.5 million constitute 16.3 percent of the population compared with the 42 million African-Americans (13.6%).

But according to the 2011 Congressional Research Service, there are are only 26 Latinos in the House of Representatives and 2 in the Senate.  That contrasts with the 44 African-Americans serving in Congress--representing the second largest U.S. minority population.  

Not only is Hispanic Congressional representation disproportionately lower than Latino national population numbers, but numerous news stories reveal that Latino voters are casting their votes this primary election season in surprising numbers for non-Hispanics in predominantly strong Hispanic congressional  districts.  

Furthermore, Latinos are not monolithic.  They do not identify themselves as Hispanics or Latinos but rather by country of origin.  That is  Latinos describe themselves first as either Argentine-American, Cuban-American, Mexican-American or from any of the other nations in the region.

The three largest Hispanic groups are Mexican-American, Puerto Rican and Cuban-American.  Senator Rubio is of Cuban descent.

Unlike other Latinos, Cuban-Americans are more conservative, wealthy and highly educated.  They tend to vote Republican.  

Senator Rubio would attract fellow Cuban-American voters but would have little appeal to other Hispanics.

Simply put.  Latinos constitute a potentially powerful political force.  But that potential is more myth than reality.  It has been that way for decades and--despite pundits pronouncements to the contrary--will be that way this November.

The vast majority of Hispanics who do decide to vote this fall most likely will cast their ballots for Barack Obama.  That is a fact.  

Our son is correct. Mitt Romney’s choice for his running mate will have to be someone with much wider and stronger political appeal among various sectors of America than does Marco Rubio does at present.  

Steve Coon

June 18, 2012